The days of OpenAI enjoying an unchallenged monopoly on consumer AI appear to be over. New web traffic data covering 2025 shows a dramatic shift in the landscape, with Google’s Gemini platform surging in popularity while ChatGPT’s dominance has begun to shrink.
A massive swing in user attention
According to figures released by analytics firm Similarweb, ChatGPT’s share of global generative AI web traffic dropped significantly over the last year. It fell from a commanding 86.7 percent to 64.5 percent.
In contrast, Google has finally found its footing. After a rocky start, Gemini’s share of traffic jumped from just 5.7 percent to 21.5 percent in the same period. While smaller competitors like xAI’s Grok and DeepSeek have appeared on the charts with single-digit shares, the data shows that users are primarily migrating from OpenAI to Google.
“Code Red” at OpenAI
The numbers tell the story of a fierce technical rivalry. Reports suggest that Google’s release of Gemini 3 Pro in November 2025—which outperformed OpenAI’s GPT-5.1 model on key benchmarks—caused panic inside OpenAI.
CEO Sam Altman reportedly declared a “code red,” pausing experimental projects to focus entirely on regaining the lead. This culminated in the rushed release of GPT-5.2 in December. The traffic data suggests that users are no longer loyal to a single brand; they are simply following the smartest model available.
The power of an ecosystem
The decline in web traffic highlights a major vulnerability for OpenAI. Google is not just relying on a website; it is pushing Gemini through Android phones, Google Docs, and Search. OpenAI, on the other hand, relies heavily on users visiting its site directly.
Market Impact & Context
This trend signals that the “first mover advantage” is fading. Google has successfully weaponized its massive distribution network to catch up to OpenAI. It proves that having the best AI model isn’t enough—you also need the easiest way for people to access it. For OpenAI, 2026 will be about defending its territory against a competitor that owns the internet’s infrastructure.
What comes next
OpenAI is expected to look for deeper integrations with hardware partners to reduce its reliance on web browsers. Meanwhile, the battle for users will likely intensify as both companies race to release their next generation of models.
